Hi Jeremy. Thanks for the reply.
Since my last post the following has changed:
1) Not only did my portfolio not grow, it dropped in the neighborhood of 75k. This is fine, and I know it will happen again, but I decided not to stop work during a down market when I can work another year and increase my portfolio, pension, and SS and at the same time as saving a year of spending in a down market.
2) My home value also dropped about 75k and I’m undecided on staying here or doing the van thing for a couple years. But even if I do get a van, I will eventually buy a home again and will likely need all the equity for a new home purchase within likely 3 years. So, I am not really counting on that money as I will need it in liquid form to put a down payment on a new home.
3) I discovered I am subject the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) with my SS which has decreased my SS benefit. I’ve spent endless phone calls and emails with folks the SSA and cannot get a straight answer to figure out what I will get exactly. [An aside: I know how to calculate the WEP PIA by hand but no one can tell me what number they use as “non-covered pension” amount required to calculate the WEP PIA. I have an option of collecting as low as 520/mo at 55 or up to 1050/mo at 65; my choice. The difference in my SS is $300/mo depending on which number I use. I cannot get anyone to tell me how they decide what number to use (oddly, given it is exactly the same pension). Talking with SSA folks is about the most infuriating experience one can have. So, if you want get really irritated give ‘em a call and ask a question. 😊] That said, until I know otherwise, I am planning to pull the 520/mo (which will also give me a 30k lump sum payout) at 55 with the hope that I will get a bigger SS check. And given the need for some cash in the early years, it might be better plan anyway to get 30K plus 520/mo starting at 55. But that choice will reduce my post-70 pensions+SS, giving me (a worst case scenario) closer to 36k a year and not 50k. If I'm guessing correctly, it might be as high as ~41K.
So, multiple FIRE calculators suggest I am in the 90+% range of success for the whole ride. And I also have lots of things I can do to mitigate a 1965-like situation.
I am mostly worried at this point, particularly given the hit both stocks and bonds took this last year, about how many years of cash/treasuries I should have when I walk away in June of 2024 to be safe from the sequence of returns risks in my available funds before 59.5. In general, my lack of post-tax money throughout retirement concerns me a bit regarding taxes, particularly if I run into any large expenses.
So, with all that, do I need to do anything in particular in the next 1.5 years with rearranging allocations to treasuries or bonds (or do I just leave stuff in equities?) to have the best available cash and tax situation when I walk. Should I be moving money to cash from my bonds/equities with my current allocations? Is the idea of loss harvesting and reallocating for 2 or three years of treasuries just spinning my wheels or a good idea? Or do I just sit on what I have where it is and withdraw regardless of the market?
Thanks again for any thoughts. Your help is always very much appreciated.