Author Topic: what is my fire number  (Read 165 times)

sind

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what is my fire number
« on: August 28, 2020, 08:02:39 AM »
25x expenses right? I am on track to spend 17500 this year including work expense. (1000) I want to budget in another 7500 for healthcare and/or another hobby should I get one. I worked for 30 years as far as SS is concerned can live on it plus a lot once I am 70. I am 46, plan to work to 47. So 23 x annual expenses? 20?

sind

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Re: what is my fire number
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2020, 08:09:11 AM »
I do plan to work as long as it takes

gocurrycracker

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Re: what is my fire number
« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2020, 10:06:15 AM »
Look at the first chart in the Trinity Study Data section of this post:
https://www.gocurrycracker.com/what-is-your-retirement-number-the-4-rule/

The oft quoted 4% rule usually references a success rate of 96% for a 30 year portfolio with at least a 50% equity stake.

You can also look at 20 year portfolios and find a similar success rate - similar success rates are available up to 5% withdrawal rates (so 20x annual spending.)

These are minimum numbers - all "success" means is that the portfolio value was more than $0 at the end of the target period.

You can experiment with other scenarios using portfolio longevity calculators. cFIREsim is one

sind

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Re: what is my fire number
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2020, 12:03:24 PM »
Thanks!!! I  have blown up firecalc and cfiresim. I am just about at 500,000 plus a paid for townhome ( little maintenance) yet I still do not have the confidence to choose a date to pull the trigger.  Seems like I could. I guess I just need some guts :)

gocurrycracker

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Re: what is my fire number
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2020, 06:30:09 PM »
It's a big life decision - I don't know that guts is what is necessary, jobs play a big role in our society (identity, purpose, socialization, etc...)

It has to feel right emotionally and look right intellectually. Both.

If you have the numbers, then maybe spend an equal amount of time looking at the emotional side - no need to force it if it doesn't feel right, as there are no prizes for retiring earlier than some arbitrary date.

sind

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Re: what is my fire number
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2020, 02:10:20 PM »
Thanks so much!  I agree there more to the decision than numbers. I re read the 4% post and processed some information that I missed the first time. I then went and re read lots of other posts :) Thanks again-this was very helpful!