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Messages - FI Obsessed

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General Discussion / Re: 3.3% SFR then 5% after 5 yrs?
« on: September 28, 2018, 07:34:41 PM »
Being happy/content is hard for me?I grew up in a?what?s next life?military brat. The Buddhist practice of mindfulness helped me temporarily but I?ve always been obsessed with my goals(I?m still working on living in the moment and appreciating it?goal #1). Goal #2 is FI then ER. Although when  I make it to $X(what I thought would give me a great sense of accomplishment)then I think $Y will be more of a relief. It?s a perpetual let down. I?m hoping for a complete financial disconnect after achieving ER. At least it will give me a little different perspective. My modest and ever changing background probably influences my perception of ER. I have learned that for me the greatest happiness has been what I find when I?m with my kids, so I do try to savor those moments.
As far as investing I?ve been currently adding 1.5% a month so that heavily outweighs returns. I really shouldn?t worry. That same amount was more like 10% when I first started aggressively adding 4 years ago. I?ve also tried multi-unit commercial real estate and that has been going surprisingly well. More luck and good friends helping then skill?so again not an endorsement of that strategy, you have to have the time and temperament. I had a few meltdowns then a friend started helping me manage it. If it was debt free it would cover about a third of our income needs. 
You are right again about my inflation fears. The worst time ever to retire should be a lot worse then a current downturn even with moderate inflation in the future. I DEFINITELY don?t want to work 5 extra years. That makes me physically ill thinking about it.  I?d rather fight that insidious viral doubt by working part time when we are in the states if I must.
New goal #3?think of myself as an axe and throw away all my rulers!! Thanks for the blog and great job on the forum!

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General Discussion / Re: 3.3% SFR then 5% after 5 yrs?
« on: September 25, 2018, 07:37:33 PM »
Very true. I?ve read about it being almost difficult to avoid earning income. Some fun projects lead to lucrative part time jobs. Although it sometimes turns into work as my commercial real estate project did. I?ve also read about people who like to have potential alternative revenue streams initiated before retiring.

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General Discussion / Re: 3.3% SFR then 5% after 5 yrs?
« on: September 25, 2018, 06:06:51 PM »
Thanks for the response! All those are classic posts but oddly enough the first one is the article that probably had the greatest impact on my FI plan. I remember reading that when you first posted it! I can?t believe I made the two mistakes of saying the 4% rule was 50/50 and I could end up with a crazy sum of money when I croak! The 96% chance of success applies to a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio and the tens of millions applies to a 100%  stock portfolio after 30 years. Correct? Of course they vary vastly in volitility and the first 10 years would make a big difference. That article about the worst 10 years was great too but may not help me sleep! I?m going to have inflation nightmares! Apparently  that?s been solved by the FED and all the new monetary policy? 
I guess the moral of my story is that I set my plan up -save X number of dollars for X number of years plus pay off  debt then try to figure out how to be happy. The first part is math and the second part is multidimensional. I?m really about 4 years into my plan with about 35ish months to go. 25 for FI and 10 for ER. Thanks for all the help over the years. Great forum!!
To anyone out there?what about going 100% stock up until the last year or two then ending 75/25 and never rebalancing?unless major downturn? Also if that 25% in bonds is enough to support you for more then a couple years does that mean you should go with 4% because the average recession is relatively short(in the grander scheme of a 40+ year retirement)?  Also is it possible to request a mild recession in the next twelve to twenty four months so I could retire into an upswing🙂

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General Discussion / Re: 3.3% SFR then 5% after 5 yrs?
« on: September 22, 2018, 03:23:22 PM »
Wow! Great response! I agree that working a fun job would be a great way to add security. Also keeps life interesting. I started setting up my fun job?art gallery. Oddly enough I found that I enjoy finding original work and meeting the artists. That turned  into a big commercial real estate project when I was trying to purchase space for a gallery! Not 100% sure it will get great returns(8%++) but it?s a good example of accidental income. It was a ton of work initially so I?m not sure I?d recommend it to others.
I?ve also wondered if just increasing from 50-50(what the 4% rule is based on) to 75-25 is enough to give a 100% chance of success at 4%? Also social security included? Then adding any additional income and spending flexibility, maybe it?s overkill? I know inflation is a major concern. Your last sentence made me think about year 0, a big negative return then could really have an impact.
Thanks again! Awesome response!

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General Discussion / 3.3% SFR then 5% after 5 yrs?
« on: September 22, 2018, 07:17:37 AM »
So I obviously know there are a ton of variables but the previous GCC post has me wondering what the math would say if you underspent for 5 years then what SWR could you realistically spend assuming all other variables were constant. Assuming average rates of return ect.
I understand his argument that he feels he can reset his withdrawal rate to 4% of his new total and agree he can do that because he has income and can decrease spending dramatically. I also agree that even without the income he could probably do that because he?s past the critical point of time. That?s what I understood from the article although I read it pretty quickly and may have missed another point so feel free to correct me.
My concern is that FIRE calculator says I could end up with 25M(under the best circumstances in history ) when I die at a 4% SWR?that would be dumb! Id rather spend more at some point. How do u know. Is there a too big to fail point? Not that I really know what we would spend that much more on but we could donate.

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